Little Rock Real Estate Market Statistics

Can you believe it is the middle of January 2008. Where did 2007 go? Actually with all the media coverage of the housing market and the sub prime loan market I don’t think I will miss 2007. 2008 looks to be much more promising. We are seeing a lot of activity in our homes under $200,000 and under $300,000 in a lot of our markets.

Laurence Yun, the Chief Economist for NAR has plenty of positive news. The Sub Prime Market is a small percent of homes in our local area. NO one can really pin point what percentage of homes sold sub prime in 2005, 2006 and 2007. However one of the best explanations I have ever heard is GREED. Traditional mortgages were not returning enough so Wall Street got greedy. How can a person who is in bankruptcy, late on house payments, credit cards and student loans walk in and get a loan. Greed…10 to 14 % interest rates. These borrowers could not even qualify for a car loan, but the sub prime market said sure make the largest purchase of your life, here is a 100 % loan. No one is asking if these borrowers should get a loan?

2007 was the 5th best year on record. If you read any newspapers or watched any of the nightly news shows you would think we had one of the worst years on record. We did not; we just had climbed so high the fall was steep. In our local market when you have more homes built than have ever sold in any given year how did we think they would be bought? With no major changes in our economy where are the buyers coming from? How can the banks continue to just give and give? Did anyone ever stop to think , “should I do this?”  What ever happen to the supply and demand curve?

Thanks to over-development, over-supply and too many flip this house shows, we have flooded our market. Our demand is still in line with recent years, but our supply is double our demand. That means one thing, lower prices. Again we never saw a double digit appreciation, so we haven’t seen 20 % deprecation. I think if we could just throw out 2006, 2007 and price our current homes off 2004, 2005 we would be just fine. WE had 2 years of unusual appreciation; however Homes in Little Rock are still stable and selling. It goes back to supply and demand.

I was so excited to see Little Rock Real Estate market stats this week. I have seen an increase in phone calls, open house traffic and buyers overall willingness to get off the sidelines and onto the field. The Homes in Little Rock haven’t seen the double digit appreciation we saw in other ares of the US. Which means we don’t have as far to fall.  Little Rock Real Estate has continually appreciated between 3 to 5 %. We really are not seeing anything more than an overbuilding of single family homes in our market.  IF the developers would not have flooded the market in the higher end homes, Homes in Little Rock would have just kept on appreciating at there modest 3 to 5 %…But everyone had to get greedy.  WE saw professionals become builders, builders become developers and we simply overbuilt for our supply for our current demand.

Weekending Numbers>>>

Dates:   New Listings    $ change   Exp   Pending     Solds     lp/sp      DOM Ttl Homes on Market

12/3/07       71                  69       37        67           47        102/99    57          1202…

12/10/07     50                  31       12         68          38       106/103   68         1132>>>Wow

**this information is gather from CARMLS…and I use specific areas of our MLS and Homes in Little Rock and Central Arkansas

With the volatility in the stock and bond market lately, it has been impossible to offer any valid short term trend on rates or short term locking advice.  As soon as a trend is given, the markets have reversed and the advice would be proven wrong.  One of my favorite saying is “it is better to be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt” so I have kept silent for the last several days. 

A brief recap of mortgage activities for the last several days will show that we now almost equal the best mortgage rates for the last TWO YEARS!  This alone should be reason to push those fence sitting buyers into a purchase mode.  Given the ample supply of product, there are value transactions that are being made and I hope that you are writing them up. 

Economic indicators show that initial jobless claims for this week were reported at 352,000 which was well above expectations of 330,000 and the highest level since mid-February.  The mortgage market benefits from bad economic news so this has helped rates hold at current levels. 

TOMORROW (all caps for special emphasis) the government will be releasing a rather obscure report called the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE).  This report shows inflation impact based on the individual consumer.  It is the Fed’s FAVORITE indicator of inflation and the report has a significant impact on future rate cuts.   

Here’s the deal… if that report shows inflation to be much greater than the anticipated .02% increase for the month, or more importantly, a greater increase that the 2.0% year over year rate, the fun is over!  Stock markets will suffer because the Fed will not cut rates as anticipated.  Why? The Fed hates inflation and their target inflations rate is 2% annually.  We really don’t want to see that target rate exceeded.  Bonds will suffer equally because fixed rate investments REALLY hate inflation.  Mortgage rates? Keep in mind that we are sitting on two year lows on home loan rates.  There would be no reason for them to go lower; you would see rates start to worsen.  

Will any of this happen?  Ask me tomorrow after 7:30 am and I’ll have you some answers.  Right now, the trend still favors floating but be prepared to lock if the inflation numbers come in worse than expected.  If you want to see instant reaction, tune into CNBC at 7:30 sharp for all the action. 

Current rates are around 5.75% on 30 year fixed loans.  Call me with you current transaction and receive the absolute lowest rate possible-if it closes in December. 

Have a great day!Claude Cousins
Sr. Vice President

Office 501-320-4902
Fax    501-320-4939
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The Local Market Scoop for Homes in
Little Rock

    When I woke up this morning I was shocked to see the housing market front and center.(Again)  I lwas reading an article in the Realtor magazine and learned the media reports off data gathered from the Tax Assessors and the Mortgage companies.  These numbers are usually delayed. The most up to date numbers come from the MLS.  80 % + of all homes are sold through a Realtor. I compiled a quick summary of what is happening in the Little Rock Real Estate Market.  I think you will find this interesting. I did..

Yearly Trends in Pulaski County

Year   Ttl Listed   #Sold   % Sold   Avg List $   Avg. Sale $   LP/SP $   DOM  %Expired    

2005        7458        5518    74%      $172,134     $168,372      97.81%      57        0.58%

2006        9227        5506    60%      $174,000     $170,198      97.59%      68        13.04%

2007        9100        4796    53%      $180,633     $175,560      97.19%      76        17.49%

Yearly Trends in Hillcrest/Heights/Mid-Town/West Little Rock/Chenal/Ferndale/Maumelle/North Little Rock

2005        3497       2663     76.15%   $243,206    $237,645      97.71%    53        0.43%

2006        4231       2630     62.16%   $241,164    $235,401      97.61%    54       13.05%

2007        4159      2243      53.93%   $248,769    $241,156      96.94%    69        16.37% 

  The Kerry Ellison Team

Little Rock,AR
72211

501-529-8809 Cell Phone

Email:KerryEllison@kw.com

Website:www.KerryEllison.com  

****This information is deemed was gathering from the Central Arkansas MLS***** Keller Williams Realty, Each office is independently owned and operated.

Pleasant Valley is holding steady in today’s market.  We are really seeing a neutral market, not a buyers or a sellers.  We are still selling homes for more dollar per foot then any year, except for 2006.  Our averages are still great, our buyers have gotten picky.  They want an updated home, not just a new tile floor, but granite, stainless steel the whole works.  We have had another landmark sale in Pleasant Valley.  A home on the golf course just closed for $208 per foot. To my knowledge this is the highest dollar per foot transaction we have seen in PV.  So I guess this proves my point we are still seeing a good stable market in our neighborhood.  I have updated the market numbers for my neighbors, if you have any questions please let me know..

Date          New    $change    Pending   Expired    ttl market     Solds    lp/sp      dom

10/22/07    3          1               7             1            40             2                        27

This information is a combined PV and Longlea…to break down the numbers total homes in Longlea for sale 21

Total homes for sale in Pleasant Valley 19

Again if I can ever help anyone with any real estate needs for questions please let me know..

your neighborhood expert..

Kerry Ellison

I was looking at our Little Rock real Estate market as I do every week and was pleasantly surprised at my findings….In Pleasant Valley we only have 19 homes on the market…4 homes are pending and we have sold 5 since 9/1/07.   If we do the math we have an average supply of 4.7 months of inventory.  Which puts PV in a neutral market. That is great news for homeowners. 

Just an update on the overall Little Rock Real Estate market..10/8/07-10/15/07

New Listings   $ Change    Under Contract   Expired  Ttl home on Mkt   sold  LP/SP  DOM 

78                    69                 71                  17                   1259      25   101/95   88

*** These numbers are derived from the Central Arkansas Mulit List Service…and specific areas in the Little Rock, Maumelle and North Little Rock Markets…

 If you are interested in a market evaluation on your homes please feel free to send me an email with your address and I will be glad to work with you…Thanks again…

I am always getting questions about our market. What is PV doing? How much dollar per square foot are homes selling for? How is Pleasant Valley doing in comparison to the rest of West Little Rock and Little Rock? I wanted to take this opportunity as a neighbor to share with you what I see and understand about our market. Below are some statistics you will find interesting.

Year          # homes Sold     List Price  $per sf   Sales Price   $per sf   Market Time

2004                 36                 $339,263     $96       $326,169       $93          84

2005                 34                 $365,335     $103     $ 354,238       $100        60  

2006                 39                 $399,997     $117      $382,935       $112        55

2007                 36                 $354,794     $107      $338,886        $102        68

I think what I see out of these statistics is we had a banner year in 2006, however we are still above $ per ft solds in 2007 vs. 2005.  We are simply seeing an adjustment in the mindset of our buyers.  We are in an oversupplied market in West Little Rock as a whole. We are still seeing the same number of homes sell, just at a more realistic price.

And as always for your real estates needs in Pleasant Valley I am delighted to help!

I will be publishing the Longlea statistics soon…and this site will be updated weekly…. 

 All this infomation was complied from CARMLS and in the subdivsion of Pleasant Valley.

Welcome to Kerry Ellison’s Blog! This blog will provide you with valuable information, tips, and general insight into the real estate market in Little Rock.